South Korea’s Birth Rate Edges Up for First Time in Seven Years

South Korea’s total fertility rate (TFR) rose to 0.78 in the first quarter of this year, up from a record-low 0.72 in 2024, according to data released Monday by Statistics Korea — offering the first glimmer of demographic hope in nearly a decade.

While still far below the replacement rate of 2.1 and the lowest among OECD nations, the uptick has prompted cautious optimism among demographers who had warned the country was on an irreversible population collapse trajectory.

What Changed?

Experts attribute the partial recovery to a combination of factors: the government’s expanded childcare subsidy program launched in late 2024, a post-pandemic surge in marriages, and a modest increase in housing affordability in provincial cities outside Seoul.

“We are seeing the effects of sustained, targeted intervention,” said Professor Kim Mira of Seoul National University’s Population Studies Institute. “But one quarter does not a trend make. We need to see this sustained over years.”

The Government’s Response

President Han Duck-soo’s administration has made reversing population decline its top domestic priority, allocating a record 28 trillion won to pro-natalist policies in the 2026 budget. Incentives include a one-time cash payment of 20 million won per newborn, expanded paternity leave, and subsidized public daycare for children under three.

Critics argue that financial incentives alone cannot address deeper structural causes of low birth rates: housing costs in Seoul that consume more than 70 percent of young households’ income, a hyper-competitive education culture, and persistent gender inequality in domestic labor.

Demographic Outlook

Even with the recent uptick, South Korea’s population is projected to peak around 51 million and decline to below 40 million by 2070, according to Statistics Korea’s medium-growth scenario. The working-age population is already shrinking, putting pressure on pension systems and economic growth potential.

“The demographic clock is still ticking,” said Ha Sung-kyu, a researcher at the Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs. “But for the first time in years, we can say it is ticking a little more slowly.”